According to Fortune, the exit landscape for 2026 is shaping up to be a tale of two markets. The year 2025 saw successes like Circle’s IPO and Google’s $32 billion acquisition of Wiz, but overall activity remains below historical highs. For 2026, insiders predict IPO momentum will extend into early Q1 or Q2 before slowing, fueled by a four-year backlog of tech companies. On the M&A front, a “friendly regulatory environment” could lead to a staggering $50 billion-plus AI software acquisition. Meanwhile, the secondary market for private shares is forecast to hit a record $250 billion in volume, as startups stay private longer and everyone from employees to big investors seeks liquidity.
IPO window: cracked, not smashed
Here’s the thing about those IPO predictions: they all hinge on the public market window staying open. And that’s a big “if.” The consensus seems to be we’ll get a burst of activity from the pent-up demand, but then it’ll get choppy again. It’s basically a controlled release valve, not a floodgate. I think the most telling quote is that the opening will be a “very significant event” needing a “positive trigger.” That doesn’t sound like a market roaring back to life; it sounds like one waiting for a specific green light.
And let’s be real, this “selective” market they talk about means only the absolute cream of the crop—the Circles of the world—get the rousing success. Everyone else, like Navan in 2025, gets a muted reception. For smaller companies, the process is still too expensive and broken. So we’ll probably see a handful of headline-grabbing IPOs that make it seem like everything’s back, while the vast majority of companies are still stuck in the private waiting room.
The $50 billion AI gamble
The prediction of a $50 billion-plus AI software acquisition is a real eyebrow-raiser. It’s a specific, massive number. The logic from Sapphire’s Jai Das is that giants like Google, Microsoft, or Meta could pull back from hyperscaler spending and redirect tens of billions toward buying a pure-play AI software winner. But who’s even worth that? And would regulators, “friendly” or not, ever let it slide? It feels like the kind of prediction that’s designed to be memorable, but the path to getting there is incredibly narrow.
More grounded, and probably more likely, is the wave of consolidation, especially in fintech and biotech. The phrase “unlikely partners” merging is fascinating. We’re talking about VC-backed competitors joining forces just to survive and get to a scale that makes them exit-viable. That’s not a sign of a exuberant market; it’s a sign of a pragmatic, even desperate, one. It’s a reminder that for every hopeful IPO candidate, an acquihire or a merger-of-necessity is the more probable outcome.
The real story: secondaries explode
This, to me, is the most important trend. When experts predict the secondary market hitting $250 billion—after a record 2025—you have to pay attention. It signals a fundamental shift. The traditional “build, IPO, cash out” path is broken for many. So the liquidity is getting created privately. GP-led continuation funds, tender offers, and structured secondaries are becoming the main event, not a sideshow.
Nick Bunick’s point about mid-stage companies using tenders as a “morale and retention lever” is huge. Illiquid paper options don’t pay the rent. If you’re a hot AI engineer, are you going to join the company with a vague promise of wealth in 5 years, or the one that offers a structured tender offer every 18 months? The competition for talent is forcing this change. But Larry Aschebrook’s warning about a “hot potato” environment introducing new structural risk is critical. When private shares trade hands rapidly in an opaque market, who’s left holding the bag if valuations get frothy? It introduces a whole new layer of instability that we haven’t fully grappled with yet.
The broader economic squeeze
All of this plays out under the shadow of Stifel’s economic note, which is basically a bucket of cold water. Higher rates for longer? That’s the opposite of what growth tech and buyout deals love. It keeps capital expensive and pressures valuations. It’s the steady background pressure that makes every exit path—IPO, M&A, secondary—harder to navigate. So you have this weird tension: strong public equities right now creating a window, but underlying economic policy that could slam it shut.
Basically, 2026 looks less like a return to the go-go years and more like the maturation of a more complex, fragmented, and private liquidity ecosystem. The action is moving away from the ringing of the Nasdaq bell and into the private negotiation rooms where secondaries are structured and competitors become partners. It’s a messier, less transparent, but undoubtedly active market. You can follow more of this analysis from Andrew G. on X. The only certainty is that the folks who make markets in private company shares are going to have a very, very busy year.
